Richmond NSW Property Investment
Penrith · 2753 · Score: 61/100 · Hold
Richmond Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Richmond NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.3% gross yield on a $1,018,542 median.
THE MARKET
Richmond has compounded at 6.0%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $761,114 in 2021 is worth $1,018,542 today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,363,039 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,018,542 | Units: $709,498
- Gross yield: 3.3% | Net yield: 1.8%
- 5yr price CAGR: 6.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 5,418 | Owner-occupier rate: 68% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.8% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $650/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $479/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$69,925/yr
- vs long-term rent: $33,800/yr (+107% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Richmond station 0.3km away
BULL CASE
If Richmond maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.3%, median prices could reach $1,171,323 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Richmond pull back 10-15% from $1,018,542, with vacancy rising to 3.2% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Blackett (NSW): $920,447 median, 2.9% yield, 9.7% 1yr growth
- Macquarie Fields (NSW): $1,027,033 median, 3.1% yield, 7.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Richmond offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a cooling phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $916,688 – $1,120,396
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 6.0% + 10yr CAGR 8.2%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.8%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (5922 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,251
2020
1,122
2021
1,220
2022
1,388
2023
941
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2753
Decile 6 of 10 — Average
Population
17,587
Education (IEO)
5/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
7/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Richmond NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $650/wk median rent for Richmond. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
Analyse a Property in Richmond
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.