Penrose NSW Property Investment
Upper Lachlan · 2579 · Score: 56/100 · Hold
Penrose Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Penrose NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — $1,867,874 (pending peer validation) median with 9.5%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Penrose has compounded at 9.5%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $1,867,874 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 46 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $1,867,874 (pending peer validation) | Units: $1,007,099
- Gross yield: 1.7% | Net yield: 0.2%
- 5yr price CAGR: 9.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 263 | Owner-occupier rate: 82% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $600/wk | Days on market: 46 (worsening)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $821/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$119,857/yr
- vs long-term rent: $31,200/yr (+284% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Penrose station 0.3km away
BULL CASE
If Penrose maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $2,148,055 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Penrose pull back 10-15% from $1,867,874, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Barrack Point (NSW): $1,711,063 median, 2.5% yield, 1.8% 1yr growth
- Bunyah (NSW): $1,511,962 median, 1.6% yield, 2.3% 1yr growth
- Diggers Camp (NSW): $1,775,000 median, 1.4% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Penrose offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a stable phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $1,681,087 – $2,054,661
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 15.4% + 10yr CAGR 5.1%
- +Strong population growth (2.9%/yr) driving demand
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2579
Decile 7 of 10 — Average
Population
4,646
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
9/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Penrose NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $600/wk median rent for Penrose. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Analyse a Property in Penrose
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.