Paterson NSW Property Investment
Maitland · 2421 · Score: 61/100 · Hold
Paterson Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Paterson NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — $990,401 (pending peer validation) median with 9.2%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Paterson has compounded at 9.2%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $990,401 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 31 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $990,401 (pending peer validation) | Units: $463,057
- Gross yield: 3.4% | Net yield: 1.9%
- 5yr price CAGR: 9.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 960 | Owner-occupier rate: 85% | Affluence: High
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $650/wk | Days on market: 31 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $764/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$111,544/yr
- vs long-term rent: $33,800/yr (+230% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Hunter Valley Coal Chain Capacity Expansion (Under Procurement)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Paterson maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $1,138,961 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Paterson pull back 10-15% from $990,401, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Kinchela (NSW): $776,000 median, 3.2% yield, -0.5% 1yr growth
- Collombatti (NSW): $800,481 median, 3.1% yield, 11.9% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Paterson offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a above_trend phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $891,361 – $1,089,441
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 9.2% + 10yr CAGR 7.4%
- +Strong population growth (2.5%/yr) driving demand
- −High supply pipeline (5598 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,245
2020
1,281
2021
1,023
2022
766
2023
1,283
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2421
Decile 9 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
2,069
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
10/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Paterson NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $650/wk median rent for Paterson. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
Analyse a Property in Paterson
Get instant STR rules, granny flat feasibility, rental yield, and full investment strategy comparison for any address in Paterson.
Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.