Oakville NSW Property Investment
Penrith · 2765 · Score: 69/100 · Buy
Oakville NSW Investment Brief
BUY — 3.0% gross yield on a $1,545,226 median.
THE MARKET
Oakville has compounded at 5.2%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,199,260 in 2021 is worth $1,545,226 today. Properties are sitting on market for 63 days (buyers have negotiating room). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,990,997 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,545,226 | Units: $812,613
- Gross yield: 3.0% | Net yield: 1.5%
- 5yr price CAGR: 5.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 1.0%/yr
- Population: 2,027 | Owner-occupier rate: 74% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.1% (stable) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $898/wk | Days on market: 63 (worsening)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- New Intercity Fleet (NSW Trains) (Under Delivery)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Oakville maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $1,777,010 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Oakville pull back 10-15% from $1,545,226, with vacancy rising to 3.8% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Barrack Point (NSW): $1,711,063 median, 2.5% yield, 1.8% 1yr growth
- Mororo (NSW): $1,167,911 median, 1.8% yield, 11.3% 1yr growth
- North St Marys (NSW): $1,148,861 median, 2.6% yield, 10.2% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Oakville presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 3.0% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current cooling phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $1,390,703 – $1,699,749
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 8.3% + 10yr CAGR 12.2%
- +Above-average population growth (1.6%/yr)
- +Low rental vacancy (2.1%) — constrained supply
- −Slow market (63 days avg) — buyer hesitancy
- −High supply pipeline (5922 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,251
2020
1,122
2021
1,220
2022
1,388
2023
941
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2765
Decile 9 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
45,613
Education (IEO)
8/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
10/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Oakville NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $898/wk median rent for Oakville. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
Analyse a Property in Oakville
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.