Mullion Creek NSW Property Investment
Dubbo · 2800 · Score: 56/100 · Hold
Mullion Creek Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Mullion Creek NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — $1,121,652 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median with 20.0%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Mullion Creek has compounded at 20.0%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $1,121,652 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $1,121,652 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $670,683
- Gross yield: 2.6% | Net yield: 1.1%
- 5yr price CAGR: 20.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 561 | Owner-occupier rate: 66% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $570/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $490/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$71,549/yr
- vs long-term rent: $29,640/yr (+141% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Mullion Creek maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $1,289,900 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Mullion Creek pull back 10-15% from $1,121,652, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Blackett (NSW): $920,447 median, 2.9% yield, 9.7% 1yr growth
- Macquarie Fields (NSW): $1,027,033 median, 3.1% yield, 7.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Mullion Creek offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a boom phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $1,009,487 – $1,233,817
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 19.2% + 10yr CAGR 9.5%
- −High supply pipeline (1929 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
257
2020
458
2021
341
2022
393
2023
480
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2800
Decile 6 of 10 — Average
Population
48,283
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
6/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Mullion Creek NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $570/wk median rent for Mullion Creek. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Analyse a Property in Mullion Creek
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.