Merriwa NSW Property Investment

Warrumbungle · 2329 · Score: 47/100 · Caution

Median House Price
$501K
Rental Yield
4.8%
Vacancy Rate
3.0%
Median Weekly Rent
$468/wk
Median Unit Price
$321K
Population
1,825
Days on Market
38 days
Annual Growth
8.6%

Merriwa Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market

Avg Nightly Rate
$560.06/night
Occupancy Rate
40%
Est. Annual Revenue
$82K
AI Investment Analysis

Merriwa NSW Investment Brief

HOLD4.8% gross yield on a $501,260 (pending peer validation) median.

THE MARKET

Median house price in Merriwa sits at $501,260 (pending peer validation) with 38 days on market and a 3.0% vacancy rate. This is a tenant-favourable market right now.

  • Median house: $501,260 (pending peer validation) | Units: $321,330
  • Gross yield: 4.8% | Net yield: 3.4%
  • 5yr price CAGR: -1.9%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
  • Population: 1,825 | Owner-occupier rate: 69% | Affluence: Below Average
  • Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

  • Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
  • Median weekly rent: $468/wk | Days on market: 38 (stable)
  • Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

  • Median nightly rate: $560/night | Occupancy: 40%
  • Estimated annual STR gross: ~$81,769/yr
  • vs long-term rent: $24,336/yr (+236% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

  • No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
  • Transport: Standard suburban transport access

BULL CASE

If Merriwa maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $576,449 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Merriwa pull back 10-15% from $501,260, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

  • Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential

COMPARABLE MARKETS

  • Aldavilla (NSW): $591,435 median, 4.2% yield, 3.4% 1yr growth
  • Dondingalong (NSW): $607,500 median, 4.1% yield, -8.5% 1yr growth
  • Gladstone (NSW): $555,200 median, 4.5% yield, -18.7% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Merriwa offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 5.3%.

  • Entry range: $451,134$551,386
  • Minimum gross yield to target: 5.1%
  • Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Gentrification Index

Pre-gentrification3.2/10
Low socioeconomic base — classic gentrification precondition
Moderate capital growth (4.7% CAGR)
Moderate development activity (26 approvals)

Growth Forecast

high confidence
1yr Forecast
4.0%
p.a.
2yr Forecast
3.7%
p.a.
5yr Forecast
3.2%
p.a.

Basis: 5yr CAGR 4.7% + 10yr CAGR 3.0%

Suburb Metric Thresholds

2 green8 yellow6 red
Rental Vacancy Rate
3 high impact
Days on Market
38 high impact
Weekly Rent (house)
468 medium impact
5yr Price CAGR
4.66 high impact
10yr Price CAGR
3.05 high impact
1yr Price Growth
8.6 medium impact
Population Growth
0.25 high impact
Median Household Income
1224 medium impact
Unemployment Rate
4.5 medium impact
Public Transport Score
0 medium impact
School Zone Quality
4.4 medium impact
Distance to CBD
208.13 medium impact
SEIFA Advantage/Disadvantage
2 medium impact
Owner Occupier Rate
68.8 medium impact
Gross Rental Yield (%)
4.85 high impact
Net Rental Yield (%)
3.35 high impact

Macro Environment

Macro Indicators

Cash Rate

4.35%

0.25%

Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04

Suburb Supply & Demand

Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals

1

2020

5

2021

5

2022

9

2023

6

2025

New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply

Socio-Economic Profile

Source: ABS Census 2021

SEIFA Index · Postcode 2329

Most disadvantagedLeast disadvantaged

Decile 2 of 10 — High disadvantage

Population

2,138

Education (IEO)

2/10

Econ. Resources (IER)

4/10

10-Year Investment Projection

Modelled on Merriwa NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.

Pre-filled: $468/wk median rent for Merriwa. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.

Schools

In your catchment

Merriwa CS
PrimaryGovernment
No data
Merriwa CS
SecondaryGovernment
No data

These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.

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Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.