Manildra NSW Property Investment
Cabonne · 2865 · Score: 49/100 · Caution
Manildra Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Manildra NSW Investment Brief
CAUTION — 2.6% gross yield on a $539,153 (pending peer validation) median.
THE MARKET
Median house price in Manildra sits at $539,153 (pending peer validation) with 35 days on market and a 3.0% vacancy rate. This is a tenant-favourable market right now.
- Median house: $539,153 (pending peer validation) | Units: $524,842
- Gross yield: 2.6% | Net yield: 1.1%
- 5yr price CAGR: -6.4%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 822 | Owner-occupier rate: 80% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $275/wk | Days on market: 35 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $497/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$72,580/yr
- vs long-term rent: $14,300/yr (+408% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Manildra maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $620,026 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Manildra pull back 10-15% from $539,153, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Kunama (NSW): $457,500 median, 3.9% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- Kandos (NSW): $422,413 median, 4.6% yield, 7.1% 1yr growth
- Lavington (NSW): $606,749 median, 4.5% yield, 21.1% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Manildra carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A recovery market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.
- Entry range: $485,238 – $593,068
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 1yr growth 40.0% (heavily discounted — volatile)
- −High supply pipeline (256 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
36
2020
64
2021
73
2022
52
2023
31
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2865
Decile 4 of 10 — Average
Population
927
Education (IEO)
2/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
6/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Manildra NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $275/wk median rent for Manildra. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Analyse a Property in Manildra
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.