Lavender Bay NSW Property Investment
North Sydney · 2060 · Score: 71/100 · Buy
Lavender Bay Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Lavender Bay NSW Investment Brief
BUY — 1.8% gross yield on a $4,174,614 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median.
THE MARKET
Lavender Bay has compounded at 5.8%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $4,174,614 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 39 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $4,174,614 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $1,364,164
- Gross yield: 1.8% | Net yield: 0.3%
- 5yr price CAGR: 5.8%/yr | 3yr forecast: 1.2%/yr
- Population: 870 | Owner-occupier rate: 41% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.6% (stable) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $1,475/wk | Days on market: 39 (stable)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $651/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$94,991/yr
- vs long-term rent: $76,700/yr (+24% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- New Intercity Fleet (NSW Trains) (Under Delivery)
- Sydney Metro City & Southwest (Operational)
- Sydney Gateway (Under Construction)
- Beaches Link Tunnel (Sydney) (Announced)
- Transport: Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Lavender Bay maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $4,800,806 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Lavender Bay pull back 10-15% from $4,174,614, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Bondi (NSW): $4,422,566 median, 2.4% yield, 7.1% 1yr growth
- Burraneer (NSW): $3,381,233 median, 2.8% yield, 8.5% 1yr growth
- Chatswood (NSW): $3,338,902 median, 2.1% yield, 2.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Lavender Bay presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 1.8% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current stable phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $3,757,153 – $4,592,075
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 5.8% + 10yr CAGR 6.4%
- +Above-average population growth (1.6%/yr)
- +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −High supply pipeline (895 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
164
2020
91
2021
92
2022
264
2023
284
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2060
Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
15,135
Education (IEO)
10/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
3/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Lavender Bay NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $1475/wk median rent for Lavender Bay. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Analyse a Property in Lavender Bay
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.