Lake Cargelligo NSW Property Investment
Lachlan · 2672 · Score: 50/100 · Hold
Lake Cargelligo Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Lake Cargelligo NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — $186,162 (pending peer validation) median with 7.4%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Lake Cargelligo has compounded at 7.4%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $186,162 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 28 days (sellers have the leverage).
- Median house: $186,162 (pending peer validation) | Units: $0
- Gross yield: 12.6% | Net yield: 11.1%
- 5yr price CAGR: 7.4%/yr | 3yr forecast: 10.7%/yr
- Population: 1,430 | Owner-occupier rate: 63% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $450/wk | Days on market: 28 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $452/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$65,974/yr
- vs long-term rent: $23,400/yr (+182% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Lake Cargelligo maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $214,086 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Lake Cargelligo pull back 10-15% from $186,162, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Sunset Strip (NSW): $143,000 median, 5.1% yield, 18.2% 1yr growth
- Lightning Ridge (NSW): $230,019 median, 6.8% yield, 40.4% 1yr growth
- Collarenebri (NSW): $140,000 median, 8.1% yield, -2.3% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Lake Cargelligo offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a cooling phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 13.1%.
- Entry range: $167,546 – $204,778
- Minimum gross yield to target: 12.9%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 7.4% + 10yr CAGR 8.6%
- +Active market (28 days avg)
- −Population decline (-0.8%/yr) — demand headwind
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
6
2020
9
2021
12
2022
15
2023
7
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2672
Decile 2 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
1,511
Education (IEO)
4/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
2/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Lake Cargelligo NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $450/wk median rent for Lake Cargelligo. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.