Kellyville NSW Property Investment

Blacktown · 2155 · Score: 78/100 · Buy

Median House Price
$1.89M
Rental Yield
2.7%
Vacancy Rate
1.6%
Median Weekly Rent
$980/wk
Median Unit Price
$989K
Population
27,011
Days on Market
42 days
Annual Growth
-1.9%
AI Investment Analysis

Kellyville NSW Investment Brief

BUY$1,894,896 median with 8.1%/yr growth over 5 years.

THE MARKET

Kellyville has compounded at 8.1%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,283,680 in 2021 is worth $1,894,896 today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,797,138 by 2031.

  • Median house: $1,894,896 | Units: $988,858
  • Gross yield: 2.7% | Net yield: 1.2%
  • 5yr price CAGR: 8.1%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
  • Population: 27,011 | Owner-occupier rate: 73% | Affluence: Very High
  • Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

  • Vacancy: 1.6% (improving) | Rental demand: High
  • Median weekly rent: $980/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
  • Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

  • Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 (Under Procurement)
  • Parramatta Light Rail Stage 1 (Operational)
  • Sydney Metro West (Under Construction)
  • NorthConnex Tunnel (Operational)
  • Transport: Standard suburban transport access

BULL CASE

If Kellyville maintains 6%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $2,179,130 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Kellyville pull back 10-15% from $1,894,896, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

  • No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

COMPARABLE MARKETS

  • Canley Vale (NSW): $1,345,042 median, 2.7% yield, 30.0% 1yr growth
  • Holroyd (NSW): $1,497,415 median, 2.5% yield, 4.2% 1yr growth
  • Berala (NSW): $1,695,375 median, 2.3% yield, 5.1% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Kellyville presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.7% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current stable phase of the market cycle.

  • Entry range: $1,705,406$2,084,386
  • Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
  • Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Gentrification Index

Early gentrification signals4.0/10
High SEIFA decile — already upgraded or established affluent area
Above-average capital growth (8.9% CAGR)
Outer suburban location (29.3km to CBD) — slower gentrification cycle
Active development pipeline (23731 approvals) — supply attracting new residents
Strong public transport infrastructure — supports walkable gentrification

Growth Forecast

high confidence
1yr Forecast
8.7%
p.a.
2yr Forecast
8.0%
p.a.
5yr Forecast
7.0%
p.a.

Basis: 5yr CAGR 8.9% + 10yr CAGR 7.9%

Growth drivers
  • +Strong population growth (6.4%/yr) driving demand
  • +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
Headwinds
  • High supply pipeline (23731 new approvals) — may cap price growth

Suburb Metric Thresholds

9 green4 yellow3 red
Rental Vacancy Rate
1.6 high impact
Days on Market
42 high impact
Weekly Rent (house)
980 medium impact
5yr Price CAGR
8.86 high impact
10yr Price CAGR
7.92 high impact
1yr Price Growth
-1.9 medium impact
Population Growth
6.42 high impact
Median Household Income
3042 medium impact
Unemployment Rate
4.2 medium impact
Public Transport Score
7.6 medium impact
School Zone Quality
7.3 medium impact
Distance to CBD
29.31 medium impact
SEIFA Advantage/Disadvantage
10 medium impact
Owner Occupier Rate
73.3 medium impact
Gross Rental Yield (%)
2.69 high impact
Net Rental Yield (%)
1.19 high impact

Macro Environment

Macro Indicators

Cash Rate

4.35%

0.25%

Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04

Suburb Supply & Demand

Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals

4,430

2020

6,762

2021

5,751

2022

4,300

2023

2,488

2025

New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply

Socio-Economic Profile

Source: ABS Census 2021

SEIFA Index · Postcode 2155

Most disadvantagedLeast disadvantaged

Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage

Population

75,699

Education (IEO)

10/10

Econ. Resources (IER)

10/10

10-Year Investment Projection

Modelled on Kellyville NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.

Pre-filled: $980/wk median rent for Kellyville. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.

Schools

In your catchment

Kellyville PS
PrimaryGovernment
8.4/10
Kellyville HS
SecondaryGovernment
7.5/10

These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.

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Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.