Keiraville NSW Property Investment
Wollongong · 2500 · Score: 61/100 · Hold
Keiraville Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Keiraville NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — $1,362,750 median with 9.1%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Keiraville has compounded at 9.1%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $881,642 in 2021 is worth $1,362,750 today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,106,396 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,362,750 | Units: $840,474
- Gross yield: 3.0% | Net yield: 1.6%
- 5yr price CAGR: 9.1%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 4,001 | Owner-occupier rate: 49% | Affluence: High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.4% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $800/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $462/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$67,452/yr
- vs long-term rent: $41,600/yr (+62% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Keiraville maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.7%, median prices could reach $1,567,162 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Keiraville pull back 10-15% from $1,362,750, with vacancy rising to 4.3% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Macquarie Fields (NSW): $1,027,033 median, 3.1% yield, 7.6% 1yr growth
- Rainbow Reach (NSW): $1,214,696 median, 2.0% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Keiraville offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a stable phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $1,226,475 – $1,499,025
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 6.8% + 10yr CAGR 6.4%
- +Low rental vacancy (2.4%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (6738 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,211
2020
1,385
2021
1,228
2022
1,346
2023
1,568
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2500
Decile 6 of 10 — Average
Population
43,472
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
2/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Keiraville NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $800/wk median rent for Keiraville. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.