Hornsby NSW Property Investment

Hornsby has compounded at 2.5%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,568,585 in 2021 is worth $1,774,710 today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,007,921 by 2031.

• Median house: $1,774,710 | Units: $740,686
• Gross yield: 2.5% | Net yield: 1.0%
• 5yr price CAGR: 2.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
• Population: 22,462 | Owner-occupier rate: 59% | Affluence: Very High

• Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals

• Vacancy: 1.6% (improving) | Rental demand: High
• Median weekly rent: $850/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
• Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.

• Median nightly rate: $408/night | Occupancy: 40%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$59,632/yr
• vs long-term rent: $44,200/yr (+35% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

• NorthConnex Tunnel (Operational)
• Beaches Link Tunnel (Sydney) (Announced)
• Sydney Metro West (Under Construction)
• Parramatta Light Rail Stage 1 (Operational)
• Transport: Standard suburban transport access

If Hornsby maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $2,040,916 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Hornsby pull back 10-15% from $1,774,710, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

• Canley Vale (NSW): $1,345,042 median, 2.7% yield, 30.0% 1yr growth
• Holroyd (NSW): $1,497,415 median, 2.5% yield, 4.2% 1yr growth
• Fairfield West (NSW): $1,296,550 median, 2.7% yield, 7.1% 1yr growth

Hornsby presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.5% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current recovery phase of the market cycle.

• Entry range: $1,597,239 – $1,952,181
• Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
• Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.