Grose Vale NSW Property Investment
Penrith · 2753 · Score: 58/100 · Hold
Grose Vale Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Grose Vale NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — 1.5% gross yield on a $1,728,911 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median.
THE MARKET
Grose Vale has compounded at 4.9%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $1,728,911 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 62 days (buyers have negotiating room).
- Median house: $1,728,911 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $876,083
- Gross yield: 1.5% | Net yield: -0.0%
- 5yr price CAGR: 4.9%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 1,272 | Owner-occupier rate: 68% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.3% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $495/wk | Days on market: 62 (worsening)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $637/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$92,993/yr
- vs long-term rent: $25,740/yr (+261% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Richmond station 7.5km away
BULL CASE
If Grose Vale maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.6%, median prices could reach $1,988,248 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Grose Vale pull back 10-15% from $1,728,911, with vacancy rising to 4.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Barrack Point (NSW): $1,711,063 median, 2.5% yield, 1.8% 1yr growth
- Diggers Camp (NSW): $1,775,000 median, 1.4% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- Kanimbla (NSW): $1,390,000 median, 1.7% yield, -16.8% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Grose Vale offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $1,556,020 – $1,901,802
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 4.9% + 10yr CAGR 7.5%
- +Low rental vacancy (2.3%) — constrained supply
- −Slow market (62 days avg) — buyer hesitancy
- −High supply pipeline (5922 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,251
2020
1,122
2021
1,220
2022
1,388
2023
941
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2753
Decile 6 of 10 — Average
Population
17,587
Education (IEO)
5/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
7/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Grose Vale NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $495/wk median rent for Grose Vale. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
Analyse a Property in Grose Vale
Get instant STR rules, granny flat feasibility, rental yield, and full investment strategy comparison for any address in Grose Vale.
Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.