Greenwell Point NSW Property Investment
Unincorp. Other Territories · 2540 · Score: 52/100 · Hold
Greenwell Point Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Greenwell Point NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — $826,703 median with 11.3%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Greenwell Point has compounded at 11.3%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $484,032 in 2021 is worth $826,703 today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,411,970 by 2031.
- Median house: $826,703 | Units: $0
- Gross yield: 3.6% | Net yield: 2.1%
- 5yr price CAGR: 11.3%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 1,245 | Owner-occupier rate: 73% | Affluence: Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.9% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $580/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $649/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$94,709/yr
- vs long-term rent: $30,160/yr (+214% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Greenwell Point maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.0%, median prices could reach $950,708 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Greenwell Point pull back 10-15% from $826,703, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Kinchela (NSW): $776,000 median, 3.2% yield, -0.5% 1yr growth
- Hat Head (NSW): $678,789 median, 3.6% yield, 37.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Greenwell Point offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a boom phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.2%.
- Entry range: $744,033 – $909,373
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 11.2% + 10yr CAGR 8.2%
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2540
Decile 5 of 10 — Average
Population
48,267
Education (IEO)
4/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
6/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Greenwell Point NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $580/wk median rent for Greenwell Point. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.