Erskineville NSW Property Investment
Sydney · 2043 · Score: 77/100 · Buy
Erskineville Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Erskineville NSW Investment Brief
BUY — 2.5% gross yield on a $1,949,991 median.
THE MARKET
Erskineville has compounded at 4.5%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,564,772 in 2021 is worth $1,949,991 today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,430,044 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,949,991 | Units: $1,151,861
- Gross yield: 2.5% | Net yield: 1.0%
- 5yr price CAGR: 4.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 9,657 | Owner-occupier rate: 45% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.6% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $950/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $652/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$95,174/yr
- vs long-term rent: $49,400/yr (+93% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Sydney Gateway (Under Construction)
- Sydney Metro City & Southwest (Operational)
- New Intercity Fleet (NSW Trains) (Under Delivery)
- WestConnex Motorway (Operational)
- Transport: Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Erskineville maintains 4%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $2,242,490 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Erskineville pull back 10-15% from $1,949,991, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Holroyd (NSW): $1,497,415 median, 2.5% yield, 4.2% 1yr growth
- Berala (NSW): $1,695,375 median, 2.3% yield, 5.1% 1yr growth
- Campsie (NSW): $1,865,686 median, 2.3% yield, 1.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Erskineville presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.5% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current cooling phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $1,754,992 – $2,144,990
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 4.5% + 10yr CAGR 5.0%
- +Strong population growth (3.8%/yr) driving demand
- +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −High supply pipeline (6957 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
753
2020
2,161
2021
1,184
2022
1,108
2023
1,751
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2043
Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
9,657
Education (IEO)
10/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
4/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Erskineville NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $950/wk median rent for Erskineville. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.