Emerton NSW Property Investment
Blacktown · 2770 · Score: 54/100 · Hold
Emerton NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.0% gross yield on a $914,779 median.
THE MARKET
Emerton has compounded at 4.7%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $727,081 in 2021 is worth $914,779 today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,150,932 by 2031.
- Median house: $914,779 | Units: $659,364
- Gross yield: 3.0% | Net yield: 1.5%
- 5yr price CAGR: 4.7%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 2,295 | Owner-occupier rate: 48% | Affluence: Low
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.7% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $528/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Western Sydney International (Nancy-Bird Walton) Airport (Under Construction)
- Sydney Metro - Western Sydney Airport Line (Under Construction)
- Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 (Under Procurement)
- Parramatta Light Rail Stage 1 (Operational)
- Transport: Mount Druitt station 2.7km away
BULL CASE
If Emerton maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.2%, median prices could reach $1,051,996 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Emerton pull back 10-15% from $914,779, with vacancy rising to 3.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Blackett (NSW): $920,447 median, 2.9% yield, 9.7% 1yr growth
- Macquarie Fields (NSW): $1,027,033 median, 3.1% yield, 7.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Emerton offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $823,301 – $1,006,257
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 4.7% + 10yr CAGR 8.5%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.7%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (23731 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
4,430
2020
6,762
2021
5,751
2022
4,300
2023
2,488
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2770
Decile 1 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
61,494
Education (IEO)
1/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
1/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Emerton NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $528/wk median rent for Emerton. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.