East Ballina NSW Property Investment
Ballina · 2478 · Score: 55/100 · Hold
East Ballina Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
East Ballina NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — $1,222,261 median with 10.7%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
East Ballina has compounded at 10.7%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $735,234 in 2021 is worth $1,222,261 today. Properties are sitting on market for 40 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,031,899 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,222,261 | Units: $859,274
- Gross yield: 3.5% | Net yield: 2.0%
- 5yr price CAGR: 10.7%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 5,882 | Owner-occupier rate: 67% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $820/wk | Days on market: 40 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $478/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$69,806/yr
- vs long-term rent: $42,640/yr (+64% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Byron Beach station 23.7km away
BULL CASE
If East Ballina maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $1,405,600 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in East Ballina pull back 10-15% from $1,222,261, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Blackett (NSW): $920,447 median, 2.9% yield, 9.7% 1yr growth
- Macquarie Fields (NSW): $1,027,033 median, 3.1% yield, 7.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
East Ballina offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a cooling phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $1,100,035 – $1,344,487
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 11.6% + 10yr CAGR 6.9%
- +Strong population growth (2.5%/yr) driving demand
- −High supply pipeline (1596 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
433
2020
361
2021
270
2022
310
2023
222
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2478
Decile 6 of 10 — Average
Population
32,053
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
6/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on East Ballina NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $820/wk median rent for East Ballina. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.