Earlwood NSW Property Investment
Canterbury-Bankstown · 2206 · Score: 69/100 · Buy
Earlwood NSW Investment Brief
BUY — $2,143,310 median with 10.2%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Earlwood has compounded at 10.2%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,318,794 in 2021 is worth $2,143,310 today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $3,483,317 by 2031.
- Median house: $2,143,310 | Units: $898,560
- Gross yield: 2.4% | Net yield: 0.9%
- 5yr price CAGR: 10.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 18,053 | Owner-occupier rate: 76% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.6% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $1,000/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Sydney Gateway (Under Construction)
- Sydney Metro City & Southwest (Operational)
- New Intercity Fleet (NSW Trains) (Under Delivery)
- WestConnex Motorway (Operational)
- Transport: Bardwell Park station 1.1km away
BULL CASE
If Earlwood maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $2,464,806 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Earlwood pull back 10-15% from $2,143,310, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Berala (NSW): $1,695,375 median, 2.3% yield, 5.1% 1yr growth
- Campsie (NSW): $1,865,686 median, 2.3% yield, 1.5% 1yr growth
- Pinkett (NSW): $2,650,000 median, 0.8% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Earlwood presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.4% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current above_trend phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $1,928,979 – $2,357,641
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 10.2% + 10yr CAGR 8.9%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −High supply pipeline (9190 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
2,412
2020
1,873
2021
1,985
2022
1,502
2023
1,418
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2206
Decile 7 of 10 — Average
Population
19,730
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
8/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Earlwood NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $1000/wk median rent for Earlwood. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.