Dural NSW Property Investment
The Hills · 2158 · Score: 62/100 · Hold
Dural Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Dural NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — 2.0% gross yield on a $2,615,371 median.
THE MARKET
Dural has compounded at 7.0%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,864,723 in 2021 is worth $2,615,371 today. Properties are sitting on market for 51 days (buyers have negotiating room). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $3,668,193 by 2031.
- Median house: $2,615,371 | Units: $770,146
- Gross yield: 2.0% | Net yield: 0.5%
- 5yr price CAGR: 7.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 8,937 | Owner-occupier rate: 82% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.6% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $995/wk | Days on market: 51 (worsening)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $1,312/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$191,570/yr
- vs long-term rent: $51,740/yr (+270% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Ourimbah station 46.9km away
BULL CASE
If Dural maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.8%, median prices could reach $3,007,677 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Dural pull back 10-15% from $2,615,371, with vacancy rising to 4.7% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity
- - Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Campsie (NSW): $1,865,686 median, 2.3% yield, 1.5% 1yr growth
- Pinkett (NSW): $2,650,000 median, 0.8% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- Belfield (NSW): $1,923,552 median, 2.7% yield, -9.1% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Dural offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a cooling phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $2,353,834 – $2,876,908
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 7.0% + 10yr CAGR 8.7%
- −High supply pipeline (16605 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
2,097
2020
3,552
2021
3,693
2022
3,561
2023
3,702
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2158
Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
8,937
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
10/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Dural NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $995/wk median rent for Dural. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.