Cranebrook NSW Property Investment

Cranebrook has compounded at 5.4%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $865,374 in 2021 is worth $1,125,659 today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,464,232 by 2031.

• Median house: $1,125,659 | Units: $861,657
• Gross yield: 3.1% | Net yield: 1.6%
• 5yr price CAGR: 5.4%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
• Population: 15,779 | Owner-occupier rate: 72% | Affluence: Above Average

• Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

• Vacancy: 2.2% (improving) | Rental demand: High
• Median weekly rent: $680/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
• Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.

• Median nightly rate: $447/night | Occupancy: 40%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$65,290/yr
• vs long-term rent: $35,360/yr (+85% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

• Western Sydney International (Nancy-Bird Walton) Airport (Under Construction)
• Sydney Metro - Western Sydney Airport Line (Under Construction)
• New Intercity Fleet (NSW Trains) (Under Delivery)
• Transport: Penrith station 3.6km away

If Cranebrook maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $1,294,508 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Cranebrook pull back 10-15% from $1,125,659, with vacancy rising to 4.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

• Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
• Blackett (NSW): $920,447 median, 2.9% yield, 9.7% 1yr growth
• Macquarie Fields (NSW): $1,027,033 median, 3.1% yield, 7.6% 1yr growth

Cranebrook offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.

• Entry range: $1,013,093 – $1,238,225
• Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
• Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.