Clarenza NSW Property Investment

CAUTION — 3.2% gross yield on a $805,846 median.

Clarenza has compounded at 3.2%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $688,420 in 2021 is worth $805,846 today. Properties are sitting on market for 41 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $943,302 by 2031.

• Median house: $805,846 | Units: $520,189
• Gross yield: 3.2% | Net yield: 1.7%
• 5yr price CAGR: 3.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
• Population: 602 | Owner-occupier rate: 71% | Affluence: Below Average

• Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

• Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
• Median weekly rent: $500/wk | Days on market: 41 (stable)
• Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.

• Median nightly rate: $384/night | Occupancy: 40%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$55,991/yr
• vs long-term rent: $26,000/yr (+115% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

• No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
• Transport: Grafton Station station 6.0km away

If Clarenza maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $926,723 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Clarenza pull back 10-15% from $805,846, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential

• Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
• Kinchela (NSW): $776,000 median, 3.2% yield, -0.5% 1yr growth
• Hat Head (NSW): $678,789 median, 3.6% yield, 37.5% 1yr growth

Clarenza carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A cooling market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.

• Entry range: $725,261 – $886,431
• Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
• Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.