Centennial Park NSW Property Investment
Randwick · 2021 · Score: 65/100 · Buy
Centennial Park Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Centennial Park NSW Investment Brief
BUY — $5,336,474 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median with 8.9%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Centennial Park has compounded at 8.9%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $5,336,474 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $5,336,474 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $920,155
- Gross yield: 1.1% | Net yield: -0.4%
- 5yr price CAGR: 8.9%/yr | 3yr forecast: 9.5%/yr
- Population: 2,225 | Owner-occupier rate: 51% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.6% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $1,175/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $533/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$77,873/yr
- vs long-term rent: $61,100/yr (+27% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- New Intercity Fleet (NSW Trains) (Under Delivery)
- Sydney Gateway (Under Construction)
- Sydney Metro City & Southwest (Operational)
- Sydney Metro West (Under Construction)
- Transport: Moore Park station 1.0km away
BULL CASE
If Centennial Park maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $6,136,945 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Centennial Park pull back 10-15% from $5,336,474, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Bondi (NSW): $4,422,566 median, 2.4% yield, 7.1% 1yr growth
- Strathfield (NSW): $3,912,396 median, 1.7% yield, -3.0% 1yr growth
- Tamarama (NSW): $6,382,601 median, 1.9% yield, 5.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Centennial Park presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 1.1% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current above_trend phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $4,802,827 – $5,870,121
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 2.8% + 10yr CAGR 5.2%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −Population decline (-0.5%/yr) — demand headwind
- −High supply pipeline (1676 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
336
2020
289
2021
318
2022
482
2023
251
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2021
Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
14,946
Education (IEO)
10/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
6/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Centennial Park NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $1175/wk median rent for Centennial Park. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Analyse a Property in Centennial Park
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.