Carlton NSW Property Investment
Bayside (NSW) · 2218 · Score: 58/100 · Hold
Carlton Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Carlton NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — 2.4% gross yield on a $1,844,864 median.
THE MARKET
Carlton has compounded at 1.0%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,755,325 in 2021 is worth $1,844,864 today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,938,971 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,844,864 | Units: $817,338
- Gross yield: 2.4% | Net yield: 0.9%
- 5yr price CAGR: 1.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 10,631 | Owner-occupier rate: 57% | Affluence: High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.5% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $850/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $463/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$67,534/yr
- vs long-term rent: $44,200/yr (+53% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Sydney Gateway (Under Construction)
- Sydney Metro City & Southwest (Operational)
- WestConnex Motorway (Operational)
- New Intercity Fleet (NSW Trains) (Under Delivery)
- Transport: Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Carlton maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.8%, median prices could reach $2,121,594 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Carlton pull back 10-15% from $1,844,864, with vacancy rising to 4.5% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Canley Vale (NSW): $1,345,042 median, 2.7% yield, 30.0% 1yr growth
- Holroyd (NSW): $1,497,415 median, 2.5% yield, 4.2% 1yr growth
- Berala (NSW): $1,695,375 median, 2.3% yield, 5.1% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Carlton offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $1,660,378 – $2,029,350
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 1.0% + 10yr CAGR 2.7%
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −Population decline (-0.3%/yr) — demand headwind
- −High supply pipeline (4611 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
472
2020
1,069
2021
739
2022
804
2023
1,527
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2218
Decile 5 of 10 — Average
Population
16,182
Education (IEO)
8/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
3/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Carlton NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $850/wk median rent for Carlton. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.