Bonnyrigg Heights NSW Property Investment
Fairfield · 2177 · Score: 62/100 · Hold
Bonnyrigg Heights Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Bonnyrigg Heights NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — $1,220,780 median with 11.5%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Bonnyrigg Heights has compounded at 11.5%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $708,375 in 2021 is worth $1,220,780 today. Properties are sitting on market for 46 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,103,835 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,220,780 | Units: $844,107
- Gross yield: 2.9% | Net yield: 1.4%
- 5yr price CAGR: 11.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 7,369 | Owner-occupier rate: 63% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.6% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $690/wk | Days on market: 46 (worsening)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $369/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$53,829/yr
- vs long-term rent: $35,880/yr (+50% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 (Under Procurement)
- Western Sydney International (Nancy-Bird Walton) Airport (Under Construction)
- Sydney Metro - Western Sydney Airport Line (Under Construction)
- WestConnex Motorway (Operational)
- Transport: Cabramatta station 6.2km away
BULL CASE
If Bonnyrigg Heights maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $1,403,897 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Bonnyrigg Heights pull back 10-15% from $1,220,780, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Canley Vale (NSW): $1,345,042 median, 2.7% yield, 30.0% 1yr growth
- Holroyd (NSW): $1,497,415 median, 2.5% yield, 4.2% 1yr growth
- Smithfield (NSW): $1,328,043 median, 2.5% yield, 7.8% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Bonnyrigg Heights offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a boom phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $1,098,702 – $1,342,858
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 3.5% + 10yr CAGR 7.3%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −High supply pipeline (5081 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
860
2020
966
2021
1,130
2022
1,257
2023
868
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2177
Decile 1 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
17,154
Education (IEO)
4/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
4/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Bonnyrigg Heights NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $690/wk median rent for Bonnyrigg Heights. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.