Bonnells Bay NSW Property Investment
Lake Macquarie · 2264 · Score: 56/100 · Hold
Bonnells Bay Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Bonnells Bay NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — $773,000–$1,017,494 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) median with 9.9%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Bonnells Bay has compounded at 9.9%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $773,000–$1,017,494 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $773,000–$1,017,494 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) | Units: $773,547
- Gross yield: 3.5% | Net yield: 2.0%
- 5yr price CAGR: 9.9%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 4,066 | Owner-occupier rate: 69% | Affluence: Average
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.6% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $695/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $932/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$136,044/yr
- vs long-term rent: $36,140/yr (+276% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Morisset station 3.2km away
BULL CASE
If Bonnells Bay maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.8%, median prices could reach $1,181,220 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Bonnells Bay pull back 10-15% from $1,027,148, with vacancy rising to 4.7% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Kinchela (NSW): $776,000 median, 3.2% yield, -0.5% 1yr growth
- Collombatti (NSW): $800,481 median, 3.1% yield, 11.9% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Bonnells Bay offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a boom phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $924,433 – $1,129,863
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 7.3% + 10yr CAGR 6.5%
- +Strong population growth (2.6%/yr) driving demand
- −High supply pipeline (6746 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,253
2020
1,328
2021
1,498
2022
1,359
2023
1,308
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2264
Decile 4 of 10 — Average
Population
16,162
Education (IEO)
3/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
5/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Bonnells Bay NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $695/wk median rent for Bonnells Bay. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.