Blaxland East NSW Property Investment
Blue Mountains · 2774 · Score: 63/100 · Hold
Blaxland East Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Blaxland East NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — 2.7% gross yield on a $1,265,000 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median.
THE MARKET
Blaxland East has compounded at 6.4%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $1,265,000 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 37 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $1,265,000 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $0
- Gross yield: 2.7% | Net yield: 1.2%
- 5yr price CAGR: 6.4%/yr | 3yr forecast: 5.7%/yr
- Population: 13,010 | Owner-occupier rate: 83% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.3% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $650/wk | Days on market: 37 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $454/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$66,266/yr
- vs long-term rent: $33,800/yr (+96% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Western Sydney International (Nancy-Bird Walton) Airport (Under Construction)
- Sydney Metro - Western Sydney Airport Line (Under Construction)
- Transport: Blaxland station 1.0km away
BULL CASE
If Blaxland East maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.6%, median prices could reach $1,454,750 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Blaxland East pull back 10-15% from $1,265,000, with vacancy rising to 4.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Blackett (NSW): $920,447 median, 2.9% yield, 9.7% 1yr growth
- Macquarie Fields (NSW): $1,027,033 median, 3.1% yield, 7.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Blaxland East offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a cooling phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $1,138,500 – $1,391,500
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 6.4% + 10yr CAGR 7.9%
- +Low rental vacancy (2.3%) — constrained supply
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −High supply pipeline (790 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
147
2020
217
2021
164
2022
147
2023
115
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2774
Decile 9 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
13,010
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
9/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Blaxland East NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $650/wk median rent for Blaxland East. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.