Blakebrook NSW Property Investment

CAUTION — $1,049,965 median with 11.6%/yr growth over 5 years.

Blakebrook has compounded at 11.6%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $606,532 in 2021 is worth $1,049,965 today. Properties are sitting on market for 32 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,817,589 by 2031.

• Median house: $1,049,965 | Units: $896,703
• Gross yield: 3.0% | Net yield: 1.5%
• 5yr price CAGR: 11.6%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
• Population: 132 | Owner-occupier rate: 70% | Affluence: Average

• Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

• Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
• Median weekly rent: $600/wk | Days on market: 32 (stable)
• Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.

• Median nightly rate: $428/night | Occupancy: 40%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$62,443/yr
• vs long-term rent: $31,200/yr (+100% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

• No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
• Transport: Heritage Park station 7.2km away

If Blakebrook maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $1,207,460 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Blakebrook pull back 10-15% from $1,049,965, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential

• Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
• Kinchela (NSW): $776,000 median, 3.2% yield, -0.5% 1yr growth
• Collombatti (NSW): $800,481 median, 3.1% yield, 11.9% 1yr growth

Blakebrook carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A boom market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.

• Entry range: $944,968 – $1,154,962
• Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
• Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.