Blacktown NSW Property Investment

Cumberland · 2148 · Score: 66/100 · Buy

Median House Price
$1.15M
Rental Yield
2.9%
Vacancy Rate
1.6%
Median Weekly Rent
$650/wk
Median Unit Price
$591K
Population
50,961
Days on Market
43 days
Annual Growth
11.4%
AI Investment Analysis

Blacktown NSW Investment Brief

BUY2.9% gross yield on a $1,152,231 median.

THE MARKET

Blacktown has compounded at 5.7%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $873,302 in 2021 is worth $1,152,231 today. Properties are sitting on market for 43 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,520,248 by 2031.

  • Median house: $1,152,231 | Units: $590,584
  • Gross yield: 2.9% | Net yield: 1.4%
  • 5yr price CAGR: 5.7%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
  • Population: 50,961 | Owner-occupier rate: 57% | Affluence: Above Average
  • Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

  • Vacancy: 1.6% (improving) | Rental demand: High
  • Median weekly rent: $650/wk | Days on market: 43 (stable)
  • Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

  • Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 (Under Procurement)
  • Parramatta Light Rail Stage 1 (Operational)
  • Sydney Metro West (Under Construction)
  • NorthConnex Tunnel (Operational)
  • Transport: Blacktown station 0.3km away

BULL CASE

If Blacktown maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $1,325,066 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Blacktown pull back 10-15% from $1,152,231, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

  • No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

COMPARABLE MARKETS

  • Turners Flat (NSW): $819,000 median, 3.0% yield, 21.3% 1yr growth
  • Canley Vale (NSW): $1,345,042 median, 2.7% yield, 30.0% 1yr growth
  • Austral Eden (NSW): $842,500 median, 3.0% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Blacktown presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.9% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current recovery phase of the market cycle.

  • Entry range: $1,037,008$1,267,454
  • Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
  • Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Gentrification Index

Early gentrification signals5.0/10
Low socioeconomic base — classic gentrification precondition
Moderate capital growth (4.2% CAGR)
Outer suburban location (30.3km to CBD) — slower gentrification cycle
Mixed tenure (40% renters) — transitional suburb profile
Active development pipeline (9809 approvals) — supply attracting new residents

Growth Forecast

high confidence
1yr Forecast
5.3%
p.a.
2yr Forecast
4.9%
p.a.
5yr Forecast
4.2%
p.a.

Basis: 5yr CAGR 4.2% + 10yr CAGR 8.2%

Growth drivers
  • +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
Headwinds
  • High supply pipeline (9809 new approvals) — may cap price growth

Suburb Metric Thresholds

4 green8 yellow3 red
Rental Vacancy Rate
1.6 high impact
Days on Market
43 high impact
Weekly Rent (house)
650 medium impact
5yr Price CAGR
4.19 high impact
10yr Price CAGR
8.15 high impact
1yr Price Growth
11.4 medium impact
Population Growth
1.36 high impact
Median Household Income
1800 medium impact
Unemployment Rate
6.6 medium impact
Public Transport Score
No data medium impact
School Zone Quality
6.2 medium impact
Distance to CBD
30.29 medium impact
SEIFA Advantage/Disadvantage
4 medium impact
Owner Occupier Rate
56.9 medium impact
Gross Rental Yield (%)
2.93 high impact
Net Rental Yield (%)
1.43 high impact

Macro Environment

Macro Indicators

Cash Rate

4.35%

0.25%

Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04

Suburb Supply & Demand

Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals

1,793

2020

3,105

2021

1,834

2022

1,772

2023

1,305

2025

New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply

Socio-Economic Profile

Source: ABS Census 2021

SEIFA Index · Postcode 2148

Most disadvantagedLeast disadvantaged

Decile 3 of 10 — High disadvantage

Population

67,483

Education (IEO)

6/10

Econ. Resources (IER)

3/10

10-Year Investment Projection

Modelled on Blacktown NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.

Pre-filled: $650/wk median rent for Blacktown. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.

Schools

In your catchment

Blacktown NPS
PrimaryGovernment
7.1/10
Blacktown BHS
SecondaryGovernment
7/10
Blacktown GHS
SecondaryGovernment
6.9/10
Evans HS
SecondaryGovernment
5/10

These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.

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Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.