Black Mountain NSW Property Investment
Clarence Valley · 2365 · Score: 48/100 · Caution
Black Mountain Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Black Mountain NSW Investment Brief
CAUTION — $508,316 (pending peer validation) median with 11.4%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Black Mountain has compounded at 11.4%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $508,316 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 20 days (sellers have the leverage).
- Median house: $508,316 (pending peer validation) | Units: $356,912
- Gross yield: 4.2% | Net yield: 2.7%
- 5yr price CAGR: 11.4%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 291 | Owner-occupier rate: 70% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $410/wk | Days on market: 20 (improving)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $414/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$60,399/yr
- vs long-term rent: $21,320/yr (+183% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Armidale station 22.3km away
BULL CASE
If Black Mountain maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $584,563 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Black Mountain pull back 10-15% from $508,316, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Aldavilla (NSW): $591,435 median, 4.2% yield, 3.4% 1yr growth
- Dondingalong (NSW): $607,500 median, 4.1% yield, -8.5% 1yr growth
- Gladstone (NSW): $555,200 median, 4.5% yield, -18.7% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Black Mountain carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A cooling market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.
- Entry range: $457,484 – $559,148
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 11.4% + 10yr CAGR 14.5%
- +Active market (20 days avg)
- −High supply pipeline (1378 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
144
2020
239
2021
364
2022
313
2023
318
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2365
Decile 3 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
3,762
Education (IEO)
4/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
4/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Black Mountain NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $410/wk median rent for Black Mountain. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.