Bardia NSW Property Investment
Liverpool · 2565 · Score: 74/100 · Buy
Bardia Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Bardia NSW Investment Brief
BUY — 3.3% gross yield on a $1,233,450 median.
THE MARKET
Bardia has compounded at 5.3%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $952,752 in 2021 is worth $1,233,450 today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,596,847 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,233,450 | Units: $808,494
- Gross yield: 3.3% | Net yield: 1.8%
- 5yr price CAGR: 5.3%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 5,747 | Owner-occupier rate: 68% | Affluence: High
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.6% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $780/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $596/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$87,080/yr
- vs long-term rent: $40,560/yr (+115% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Western Sydney International (Nancy-Bird Walton) Airport (Under Construction)
- Sydney Metro - Western Sydney Airport Line (Under Construction)
- Sydney Metro West (Under Construction)
- New Intercity Fleet (NSW Trains) (Under Delivery)
- Transport: Edmondson Park station 1.0km away
BULL CASE
If Bardia maintains 10%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $1,418,468 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Bardia pull back 10-15% from $1,233,450, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Blackett (NSW): $920,447 median, 2.9% yield, 9.7% 1yr growth
- Macquarie Fields (NSW): $1,027,033 median, 3.1% yield, 7.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Bardia presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 3.3% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current recovery phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $1,110,105 – $1,356,795
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 5.5% + 10yr CAGR 8.1%
- +Strong population growth (9.6%/yr) driving demand
- +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (11690 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
2,048
2020
2,373
2021
2,489
2022
2,541
2023
2,239
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2565
Decile 6 of 10 — Average
Population
31,588
Education (IEO)
7/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
8/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Bardia NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $780/wk median rent for Bardia. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.