Ashmont NSW Property Investment
Narrandera · 2650 · Score: 49/100 · Caution
Ashmont Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Ashmont NSW Investment Brief
CAUTION — 3.6% gross yield on a $644,122 median.
THE MARKET
Ashmont has compounded at 3.9%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $531,974 in 2021 is worth $644,122 today. Properties are sitting on market for 35 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $779,912 by 2031.
- Median house: $644,122 | Units: $415,059
- Gross yield: 3.6% | Net yield: 2.1%
- 5yr price CAGR: 3.9%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 3,747 | Owner-occupier rate: 63% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $450/wk | Days on market: 35 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $492/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$71,787/yr
- vs long-term rent: $23,400/yr (+207% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- HumeLink Transmission Line (Under Procurement)
- Transport: Willans Hill station 3.2km away
BULL CASE
If Ashmont maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $740,740 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Ashmont pull back 10-15% from $644,122, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Kinchela (NSW): $776,000 median, 3.2% yield, -0.5% 1yr growth
- Hat Head (NSW): $678,789 median, 3.6% yield, 37.5% 1yr growth
- Collombatti (NSW): $800,481 median, 3.1% yield, 11.9% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Ashmont carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A boom market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.
- Entry range: $579,710 – $708,534
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 3.8% + 10yr CAGR 2.0%
- +Above-average population growth (1.5%/yr)
- −Moderate supply pipeline (60 approvals)
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
5
2020
13
2021
15
2022
14
2023
13
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2650
Decile 5 of 10 — Average
Population
61,511
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
4/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Ashmont NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $450/wk median rent for Ashmont. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Analyse a Property in Ashmont
Get instant STR rules, granny flat feasibility, rental yield, and full investment strategy comparison for any address in Ashmont.
Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.