Ashfield NSW Property Investment
Burwood · 2131 · Score: 64/100 · Hold
Ashfield Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Ashfield NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — 2.2% gross yield on a $2,330,381 median.
THE MARKET
Ashfield has compounded at 0.5%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $2,272,985 in 2021 is worth $2,330,381 today. Properties are sitting on market for 38 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,389,226 by 2031.
- Median house: $2,330,381 | Units: $911,544
- Gross yield: 2.2% | Net yield: 0.7%
- 5yr price CAGR: 0.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 23,012 | Owner-occupier rate: 45% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.6% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $1,000/wk | Days on market: 38 (stable)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $484/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$70,692/yr
- vs long-term rent: $52,000/yr (+36% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Sydney Metro City & Southwest (Operational)
- Sydney Gateway (Under Construction)
- New Intercity Fleet (NSW Trains) (Under Delivery)
- WestConnex Motorway (Operational)
- Transport: Ashfield station 0.2km away
BULL CASE
If Ashfield maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $2,679,938 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Ashfield pull back 10-15% from $2,330,381, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Berala (NSW): $1,695,375 median, 2.3% yield, 5.1% 1yr growth
- Campsie (NSW): $1,865,686 median, 2.3% yield, 1.5% 1yr growth
- Pinkett (NSW): $2,650,000 median, 0.8% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Ashfield offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $2,097,343 – $2,563,419
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 0.5% + 10yr CAGR 4.8%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −Population decline (-0.7%/yr) — demand headwind
- −High supply pipeline (2075 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
314
2020
175
2021
114
2022
362
2023
1,110
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2131
Decile 6 of 10 — Average
Population
23,012
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
1/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Ashfield NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $1000/wk median rent for Ashfield. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.