Abermain NSW Property Investment

Maitland · 2326 · Score: 53/100 · Hold

Median House Price
$704K
Rental Yield
3.7%
Vacancy Rate
2.9%
Median Weekly Rent
$500/wk
Median Unit Price
$445K
Population
2,544
Days on Market
41 days
Annual Growth
9.6%

Abermain Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market

Avg Nightly Rate
$484.38/night
Occupancy Rate
40%
Est. Annual Revenue
$71K
AI Investment Analysis

Abermain NSW Investment Brief

HOLD$704,203 median with 12.0%/yr growth over 5 years.

THE MARKET

Abermain has compounded at 12.0%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $399,584 in 2021 is worth $704,203 today. Properties are sitting on market for 41 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,241,046 by 2031.

  • Median house: $704,203 | Units: $445,435
  • Gross yield: 3.7% | Net yield: 2.2%
  • 5yr price CAGR: 12.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
  • Population: 2,544 | Owner-occupier rate: 76% | Affluence: Low
  • Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

  • Vacancy: 2.9% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
  • Median weekly rent: $500/wk | Days on market: 41 (stable)
  • Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

  • Median nightly rate: $484/night | Occupancy: 40%
  • Estimated annual STR gross: ~$70,719/yr
  • vs long-term rent: $26,000/yr (+172% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

  • Hunter Valley Coal Chain Capacity Expansion (Under Procurement)
  • Transport: Pelaw Main station 4.1km away

BULL CASE

If Abermain maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.0%, median prices could reach $809,833 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Abermain pull back 10-15% from $704,203, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

  • Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential

COMPARABLE MARKETS

  • Kinchela (NSW): $776,000 median, 3.2% yield, -0.5% 1yr growth
  • Hat Head (NSW): $678,789 median, 3.6% yield, 37.5% 1yr growth
  • Collombatti (NSW): $800,481 median, 3.1% yield, 11.9% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Abermain offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a boom phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.2%.

  • Entry range: $633,783$774,623
  • Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
  • Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Gentrification Index

Early gentrification signals5.0/10
Low socioeconomic base — classic gentrification precondition
Above-average capital growth (8.6% CAGR)
Active development pipeline (5598 approvals) — supply attracting new residents

Growth Forecast

high confidence
1yr Forecast
7.0%
p.a.
2yr Forecast
6.5%
p.a.
5yr Forecast
5.6%
p.a.

Basis: 5yr CAGR 8.6% + 10yr CAGR 6.6%

Headwinds
  • High supply pipeline (5598 new approvals) — may cap price growth

Suburb Metric Thresholds

4 green5 yellow6 red
Rental Vacancy Rate
2.9 high impact
Days on Market
41 high impact
Weekly Rent (house)
500 medium impact
5yr Price CAGR
8.56 high impact
10yr Price CAGR
6.59 high impact
1yr Price Growth
9.6 medium impact
Population Growth
1.43 high impact
Median Household Income
1373 medium impact
Unemployment Rate
7.1 medium impact
Public Transport Score
No data medium impact
School Zone Quality
5.1 medium impact
Distance to CBD
118.83 medium impact
SEIFA Advantage/Disadvantage
1 medium impact
Owner Occupier Rate
76.4 medium impact
Gross Rental Yield (%)
3.69 high impact
Net Rental Yield (%)
2.19 high impact

Macro Environment

Macro Indicators

Cash Rate

4.35%

0.25%

Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04

Suburb Supply & Demand

Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals

1,245

2020

1,281

2021

1,023

2022

766

2023

1,283

2025

New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply

Socio-Economic Profile

Source: ABS Census 2021

SEIFA Index · Postcode 2326

Most disadvantagedLeast disadvantaged

Decile 1 of 10 — High disadvantage

Population

7,871

Education (IEO)

1/10

Econ. Resources (IER)

3/10

10-Year Investment Projection

Modelled on Abermain NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.

Pre-filled: $500/wk median rent for Abermain. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.

Schools

In your catchment

Abermain PS
PrimaryGovernment
4.1/10
Cessnock HS
SecondaryGovernment
3.7/10

These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.

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Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.