Jervis Bay ACT Property Investment

CAUTION — 2.6% gross yield on a $715,000 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median.

Jervis Bay has compounded at 6.0%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $715,000 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions).

• Median house: $715,000 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $0
• Gross yield: 2.6% | Net yield: 1.1%
• 5yr price CAGR: 6.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 5.4%/yr
• Population: 48,267 | Owner-occupier rate: 73% | Affluence: Average

• Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

• Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
• Median weekly rent: $360/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
• Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.

• Median nightly rate: $491/night | Occupancy: 52%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$93,203/yr
• vs long-term rent: $18,720/yr (+398% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

• No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
• Transport: Bomaderry station 32.0km away

If Jervis Bay maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $822,250 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Jervis Bay pull back 10-15% from $715,000, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential

• Charnwood (ACT): $743,000 median, 4.3% yield, 9.3% 1yr growth
• Holt (ACT): $761,000 median, 4.5% yield, 2.6% 1yr growth
• Page (ACT): $871,000 median, 3.8% yield, 3.9% 1yr growth

Jervis Bay carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A stable market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.

• Entry range: $643,500 – $786,500
• Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
• Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.