Chapman ACT Property Investment
Snowy Valleys · 2611 · Score: 75/100 · Buy
Chapman Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Chapman ACT Investment Brief
BUY — 3.4% gross yield on a $1,328,000 median.
THE MARKET
Chapman has compounded at 3.2%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,134,487 in 2021 is worth $1,328,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 35 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,554,521 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,328,000 | Units: $917,151
- Gross yield: 3.4% | Net yield: 1.9%
- 5yr price CAGR: 3.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 2,867 | Owner-occupier rate: 76% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.0% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $870/wk | Days on market: 35 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $384/night | Occupancy: 52%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$72,978/yr
- vs long-term rent: $45,240/yr (+61% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- ACT Light Rail Stage 2B (Woden) (Announced)
- ACT Light Rail Stage 2A (Under Construction)
- Transport: Canberra Station station 10.8km away
BULL CASE
If Chapman maintains 5%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.4%, median prices could reach $1,527,200 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Chapman pull back 10-15% from $1,328,000, with vacancy rising to 3.6% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Florey (ACT): $935,000 median, 3.7% yield, 16.4% 1yr growth
- Macquarie (ACT): $995,000 median, 3.4% yield, 0.6% 1yr growth
- Rivett (ACT): $949,000 median, 3.6% yield, 2.4% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Chapman presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 3.4% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current cooling phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $1,195,200 – $1,460,800
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 3.2% + 10yr CAGR 4.3%
- +Strong population growth (5.5%/yr) driving demand
- +Low rental vacancy (2.0%) — constrained supply
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2611
Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
36,535
Education (IEO)
10/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
9/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Chapman ACT data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $870/wk median rent for Chapman. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
Analyse a Property in Chapman
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.